Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
The rupee has been among the The RBI uses the Iran-US peace deal to bolster its forex reserves.
For starters, the Iran situation is sure to have an impact on crude oil prices, as the world has little spare capacity.
The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
Apart from this, state refiners are looking at optimising crude oil inventory levels without in any way affecting fuel supplies in the domestic market.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday warned that India's limited crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels - sufficient for only 40-45 days of consumption - leave the country particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in West Asia.
The report notes that equities had faced pressure from elevated valuation premiums, subdued nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and earnings growth, sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure euphoria, and external shocks including US tariffs and a spike in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. However, several of these factors are now reversing.
India's oil import bill for the first quarter of the current fiscal has climbed to $4.72 billion while petroleum product exports totalled $706 million.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first rate hike in over four years. This decision follows a period of stable prices during recent state elections, despite rising global crude oil prices and significant losses for fuel retailers.
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation surged to 9.68 per cent in May, up from 8.26 per cent in April, primarily due to significant increases in the prices of fuel and power, manufactured goods, and food items.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's largest buyer of Russian oil and most impacted by the latest US sanctions, on Friday said it will comply with all applicable restrictions and will adjust its refinery operations to meet compliance requirements.
India, which imports over 80 per cent of its oil needs, spent $87.7 billion on importing 220.43 million tonne (MT) of crude oil in 2017-18. For 2018-19, the imports are pegged at almost 227 MT.
India's net oil import bill has jumped by 51 per cent to Rs 27,135 crore (Rs 271.35 billion) in the first quarter of current fiscal on the back of sharp spike in international oil prices.
Afraid of US sanctions, State Bank declines payment facilitation for oil imports from Iran.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
Two more Indian-flagged LPG tankers have begun their journey from the Persian Gulf, navigating the Strait of Hormuz amidst regional conflict, following disruptions caused by recent tensions in the Middle East.
This means lower losses on fuel sales by Indian oil companies and a shrinking oil subsidy bill for the government.
India's crude oil production fell 2.3 per cent in August but natural gas output rose by more than a fifth on the back of output from KG-D6 fields of Reliance-BP, government data released on Wednesday showed. Crude oil production dropped to 2.51 million tonnes in August as output from fields operated by state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) dipped. India is 85 per cent dependent on imports to meet its oil needs and the government has been for long looking at ways to raise the domestic output so as to reduce import dependence.
'Buy on dips, buy on dips and sell on rise.'
.jpg)
Even as Russia and West Asia have been slugging it out for market share in India to sell their crude oil, the US is quietly making its moves on the sidelines. The US has doubled its share of the Indian crude market in the past few months, according to industry sources and ship-tracking data. Some of the increase in America's market share may have come at the expense of Russia, India's biggest crude oil supplier, said industry sources.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, in July bought $2.8 billion worth of crude oil from Russia, second only to China which remains the largest importer of Russian oil, a report said. Russia emerged as India's biggest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries, after Russian oil was available on discount following some European nations shunning purchases from Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Formerly Iran's second-largest oil customer, Indian financial institutions were forced to withhold crude oil payments following the 2018 US sanctions.
The Indian government has allocated an additional 2 million tonnes of surplus broken rice from FCI stocks for its ethanol blending programme, while simultaneously issuing a detailed rebuttal to widespread misinformation regarding the E20 fuel, addressing concerns from water consumption to engine damage and environmental impact.
The Indian rupee rebounded against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) restricted banks' net open positions in dollars. This move prompted banks to sell dollars, providing temporary support for the rupee amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
Low fuel prices to help oil marketing and refining sectors but upstream players will stay under pressure.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded in early trade, tracking a recovery in global equity markets and an easing of hostilities between Israel and Iran, after a sharp fall in the previous session.
India's exports recorded a 13.78 per cent increase to USD 43.56 billion in April, marking the highest monthly outbound shipments in over four years, primarily driven by petroleum products. However, the trade deficit widened to a three-month high of USD 28.38 billion due to a 10 per cent rise in imports.
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 8.30 per cent in April, up from 3.88 per cent in March, primarily driven by a significant increase in the prices of fuel, power, and crude petroleum, according to data from the commerce and industry ministry.
Hundreds of Indian seafarers are stranded on vessels carrying crude oil, LPG, and LNG in the Persian Gulf due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, causing disruptions to India's energy supplies.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi cautioned against the 'weaponisation' of technology and critical minerals at the BRICS summit, advocating for cooperation to foster shared prosperity. Concurrently, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans for an open-source AI ecosystem for BRICS nations, positioning Beijing as a key technology partner amid global AI competition.
Succumbing to the US pressure, India has decided to cut crude oil import from Iran by over 11 per cent this fiscal to 15.5 million tons.
India's dependence on imported crude oil to meet domestic demand has been a matter of concern for years. Delivering the inaugural address at the global energy summit - Urja Sangam - in 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had called for enhancing domestic oil and gas production to cut the import burden. He aimed at lowering it by at least 10 per cent by 2022 - to coincide with the platinum jubilee of India's independence. But this target is far from being achieved and the country's import reliance has only risen.
The price of petrol breached a three-year high on Monday at Rs 74.50 a litre, while the price of diesel was at its highest at Rs 65.75 a litre
Or Iran may face the risk of losing its biggest client
Will rising tensions between US-Israel and Iran threaten crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, putting India's fuel prices, imports, and economic stability at risk?
Iran has reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, with its forces opening fire on a passing tanker and forcing at least two Indian vessels to reverse course, escalating tensions in the region and raising concerns over energy supplies.
Saudis are interested in expanding their relationship with India, given it is becoming the main driver of crude demand growth in Asia
